|
|
|
 Free Download Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition By Tetlock, Philip E 2017 | 368 Pages | ISBN: 0691178283 | EPUB | 5 MB Since its original publication,Expert Political JudgmentbyNew York Timesbestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.  Free Download Elizabeth Lhost, "Everyday Islamic Law and the Making of Modern South Asia" English | 2022 | ISBN: 1469668114, 1469668122 | PDF | pages: 377 | 19.8 mb Beginning in the late eighteenth century, British rule transformed the relationship between law, society, and the state in South Asia. But qazis and muftis, alongside ordinary people without formal training in law, fought back as the colonial system in India sidelined Islamic legal experts. They petitioned the East India Company for employment, lobbied imperial legislators for recognition, and built robust institutions to serve their communities. By bringing legal debates into the public sphere, they resisted the colonial state's authority over personal law and rejected legal codification by embracing flexibility and possibility. With postcards, letters, and telegrams, they made everyday Islamic law vibrant and resilient and challenged the hegemony of the Anglo-Indian legal system.  Free Download Martin Black, "Essays in Philosophy: Modern" English | 2013 | ISBN: 1587312271 | PDF | pages: 414 | 69.0 mb [center]  Free Download Martin Black, "Essays in Philosophy: Ancient" English | 2013 | ISBN: 1587312263 | PDF | pages: 400 | 67.1 mb [center]  Free Download Eat More Greens by Green, Fern; English | 2023 | ISBN: 1784886394 | 160 pages | True EPUB | 92.28 MB  Free Download Dynamics of Foliations, Groups and Pseudogroups by Paweł Walczak English | PDF (True) | 2004 | 236 Pages | ISBN : 3764370912 | 20.3 MB Foliations, groups and pseudogroups are objects which are closely related via the notion of holonomy. In the 1980s they became considered as general dynamical systems. This book deals with their dynamics. Since "dynamics" is a very extensive term, we focus on some of its aspects only. Roughly speaking, we concentrate on notions and results related to different ways of measuring complexity of the systems under consideration. More precisely, we deal with different types of growth, entropies and dimensions of limiting objects. Invented in the 1980s (by E. Ghys, R. Langevin and the author) geometric entropy of a foliation is the principal object of interest among all of them.  Free Download Dr. Wangari Maathai Plants a Forest By Girls, Rebel 2020 | 128 Pages | ISBN: 1733329218 | EPUB | 58 MB From the world ofGood Night Stories for Rebel Girlscomes the historical novel based on the life of Dr. Wangari Maathai, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning activist from Kenya.Wangari lives in a magical place in rural Kenya where the soil is rich for planting, the trees abundant, and the nearby pond full of mysterious creatures. She drinks from cool, clean streams and plays beneath her favorite fig tree under her mother's watchful gaze.Then Wangari grows up and goes away to school, and things start changing at home. Farmers chop down the trees. Landslides bury the stream. The pond dries up. The soil becomes overworked, dry, and unusable for planting. And people go hungry. Dr. Wangari Maathai has a simple solution to all of these problems: plant trees.  Free Download Edwin Jurriëns, Ross Tapsell, "Digital Indonesia: Connectivity and Divergence" English | 2017 | ISBN: 9814762997, 9814762989 | PDF | pages: 327 | 7.2 mb This book places Indonesia at the forefront of the global debate about the impact of "disruptive" digital technologies. Digital technology is fast becoming the core of life, work, culture and identity. Yet, while the number of Indonesians using the internet has followed the upward global trend, some groups ― the poor, the elderly, women, the less well-educated, people living in remote communities ― are disadvantaged. This interdisciplinary collection of essays by leading researchers and scholars, as well as e-governance and e-commerce insiders, examines the impact of digitalisation on the media industry, governance, commerce, informal sector employment, education, cybercrime, terrorism, religion, artistic and cultural expression, and much more. It presents groundbreaking analysis of the impact of digitalisation in one of the worlds most diverse, geographically vast nations. In weighing arguments about the opportunities and challenges presented by digitalisation, it puts the very idea of a technological revolution into critical perspective.  Free Download Lt. William Swabey, "Diary of Campaigns in the Peninsula for the Years 1811, 1812 and 1813" English | 2016 | ISBN: 0946879028 | ASIN: B01M8NBH9W | EPUB | pages: 218 | 4.6 mb Lieutenant Swabey's personal diary is a unique account of day-to-day events during the Peninsula War and the epic battles that marked this defiant campaign against Napoleon. The volume also includes Swabey's retrospective reminiscences of the war-an addition of amusing anecdotes which complement the diary. Witnessing the fierce cruelty of the Spaniards, encountering hunger and sickness, Swabey's account takes us from July 1811 to August 1813 when he was invalided home, and includes The Siege of Ciudad Rodrigo, The Siege and Storm of Badajoz, The Battle of Salamanca, The Battle of Vitoria and The Siege of St. Sebastian.  Free Download Cybersecurity: A Technology Landscape Analysis English | 2023 | ISBN: 3031348427 | 442 Pages | PDF EPUB (True) | 64 MB Cybersecurity has become a critical area to focus after recent hack attacks to key infrastructure and personal systems. This book reviews the building blocks of cybersecurity technologies and demonstrates the application of various technology intelligence methods through big data. Each chapter uses a different mining method to analyze these technologies through different kinds of data such as patents, tweets, publications, presentations, and other sources. It also analyzes cybersecurity methods in sectors such as manufacturing, energy and healthcare. |
: 