Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond

Free Download Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence: A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond (Management for Professionals) by Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen
English | October 26, 2024 | ISBN: 3031661141 | 372 pages | MOBI | 12 Mb
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning '(un)certainty' to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today's rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. 'Red Teaming'. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, 'Intelligence Engineering' (IE) and, secondly, 'Strategic Options Analysis' (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.