Essentials Of Business Risk Analysis Modeling

What you'll learn
Understand how risk analysis modeling is used in business
Know the probability distributions and math needed to perform a business risk analysis
Evaluate the aggregate exposure from a set of risks in a register
Complete a financial risk analysis for a business investment
Be able to audit a risk analysis model identifying errors and interpreting formulae
Create, interpret and present risk analysis reports to decision-makers
Requirements
Basic knowledge of Excel. Reasonable competency with numbers and logic
Description
A very large component of a business' success is how it manages risk. Risk is managed far more effectively if one can quantify and therefore compare the uncertainty of outcomes from different possible decision options.Risk quantification isn't actually that hard. It's been used very successfully for over twenty years in most large organizations, and the ability to build a simple, defensible and decision-focused risk analysis is a skill much sought-after in large corporations. This course will teach you that skill.You don't need to have any background in probability or statistics to complete this course. This course assumes no prior knowledge of probability concepts. You also don't need to have a strong background in math - if you passed math at high school you'll be fine. You should be comfortable with numbers, however, and have a logical mindset. It will also be quite helpful if you are familiar with the very basic features of Excel.Bear in mind that risk analysis is a creative process. This course teaches you how to describe uncertainty in numerical terms by building risk analysis models that faithfully reflect your view of the uncertainty ahead. That's half the battle. The other half is to think about what risks you face and how you can manage them best. That's the really interesting and challenging part.
Overview
Section 1: Introduction
Lecture 1 Introduction
Section 2: Setting up your risk analysis software
Lecture 2 Introduction
Lecture 3 How to download and install ModelRisk
Section 3: The basics of Monte Carlo simulation
Lecture 4 Introduction
Lecture 5 Explanation of Monte Carlo simulation through a series of examples and exercises
Section 4: A review of the probability distributions needed in business risk modeling
Lecture 6 Introduction
Lecture 7 A review of key distributions used in risk analysis and how they are applied
Section 5: Creating and presenting risk analysis results
Lecture 8 Introduction
Lecture 9 Reporting and reviewing results
Section 6: Comparing decision options using multiple simulations
Lecture 10 Introduction
Lecture 11 Setting up multiple simulations in a model
Section 7: Common math mistakes in risk models and how to avoid them
Lecture 12 Introduction
Lecture 13 The most common mistakes and their remedies
Section 8: What makes a good model
Lecture 14 Introduction
Lecture 15 What makes a good model
Section 9: Wrap up
Lecture 16 How to get your Credly badge
Analysts supporting decision-makers who wish to incorporate risk and uncertainty in their evaluations of different decision options.


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